12.13.2021

The general THESIS we have remains intact, we feel the USD will weaken. Our thesis is based on CHARTS alone, which represent PARTICIPANT BEHAVIOR.

We do not rule out a ROWDY day on Wednesday, where the initial reaction could be a fast RUSH TO USD, taking the EURUSD under 1.1200 and having the other USD pairs follow suit, and then, later in the day, see those moves reverse in a big way.

We expect the EURUSD to ultimately trade higher, towards the 1.1600 area, before we see the next major MARKET PIVOT.

Our reasoning is purely technical, but we also sense that market positioning is leaning too hard in one direction (long USD).

We will continue to update charts and look for scenarios that offer convexity in trading, which is ultimately what we seek.