BLOW OFF TOP THESIS, WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR FX.

by | Jan 18, 2022 | FRAMEWORK, FX WATCH LIST, PROCESS | 0 comments

01.18.2022

We have mapped a blow-off top scenario for the NASDAQ

CHART:

Our thesis has the index finding support at the shaded area, and having a BLOW OFF type move significantly higher.

How can we express this in FX terms: CROSS JPY.

We feel that JPY is very vulnerable, BOJ is doubling up (more on that later) and a higher global yield environment will be a detriment for JPY. But for it to be attractive, we need to see some violence in the sell off and we feel we just might.

GBPJPY – a firm candidate, this has to fall ~320 bps for it to be at the level we want to participate

DAILY CHART:

There is massive support around 149.00

CADJPY – With the potential of OIL to $100.00 CAD could continue to rally into mid year. CADJPY would have to correct ~ 350 basis points.

We will continue to look and do work. There is also the USD. We will post separately on that, but a BLOW OFF TOP in equities would WEAKEN THE DOLLAR SIGNIFICANTLY.

More to come.