by discobiscuit | Jan 30, 2023 | MARKET COMMENTARY
01.30.2023 COMMENTARY: I speak with a bunch or MACRO guys, From Asset managers, HF traders and Bank analysts. Most are folks I’ve known for years. The common denominator is that the USD has put in a TOP. That is possible, they all have very valid arguments...
by discobiscuit | Jan 5, 2023 | MARKET COMMENTARY
01.05.2022 (5) the boj is the final central bank to turn hawkish and this is political more than anything given how the government is subsiding the consumers because of high inflation, so we start to remove this policy divergence thesis which was the primary driver...
by discobiscuit | Jan 5, 2023 | MARKET COMMENTARY
01.05.2022 (1) central bank surprise hawkishness is behind us which should lead to lower volatility across markets but especially in fx hence why i am micro focused on carry or for that matter negative carry when entering a position(2) risk markets are yearning for a...
by discobiscuit | Dec 15, 2022 | MARKET COMMENTARY
12.15.2022 “I think the market is going to bury the ECB. They want a stronger EUR to help fight inflation but it comes at a cost of higher yields and we know that higher yields usually blows up the EUR. This is just bad for the EU economy and why you want to be...
by discobiscuit | Nov 28, 2022 | FRAMEWORK, MACRO CHART, MARKET COMMENTARY
11.28.2022 GIOVANNI VILLANUEVA: I want to point out an interesting divergence that is materializing in the market right now. The 2s10s yield curve is usually a gauge that many non rates focused participants use as a gauge of a recession. I have argued that we need to...
by discobiscuit | May 4, 2022 | MARKET COMMENTARY
05.04.2022 We have highlighted this before, Central Banks meeting market expectations have been hurt via the FX channel as the market wants CBs to be fully committed to the regime shift in inflation ala BCB. BCB inflation target is 3.5% with +/- 1.5% tolerance and...
