This is our PLAY BOOK for the next market period.
1- This RISK CORRECTION should be a corrective move lower.
2- There should be a BLOW OFF TOP move that takes assets prices materially higher
The ROAD MAP illustrated with CADJPY
CADJPY represents well for RISK in general. It has a commodity proxy (oil) and a leverage/margin proxy (JPY). We feel that the we are entering a corrective period. The difficulty is embedded in liquidity.
The great debate is whether or not the FED will start tapering aggressively or gradually. Inflation has been an issue and the debate is how sticky it will be.
In addition, this blow-off top thesis has the USD weakening quite a bit, after this corrective period is over.
This remains our FRAMEWORK for the next MARKET PERIOD.
We will be cautious in participating to heavily in the counter-trend moves, and want to be able to position well for CONTINUATION.