The CRUDE correction has played out well, the ENDING DIAGONAL reached its target and bounced (62.00) as marked on our chart.

These type of COUNTER TREND corrective moves are common.

What does this mean for RISK and the USD ?

There is a CORRELATION between CRUDE and the USD:

For now, the USD picture remains MIXED. We are being cautious with DIRECTIONAL USD positions. The correlation with CRUDE seems to indicate that the USD may sell off a bit from current levels, as counter intuitive as it may sound, given the overall RISK framework.

Caution is merited. We rely on charts, not narratives.