10.29.2021
This is what we see in the DXY chart (daily).
There is a RESISTANCE line that INDEX would have to clear for us to turn from short term BEARISH to short term USD bulls.
How do we see INDIVIDUAL PAIRS?
USDJPY – Hitting MAJOR RESISTANCE, in this environment, a BREAK would cause a SEVERE move higher, we are not ruling that out, but are cautious here and expect consolidation.
AUD (Australian Dollar) – I has had a very nice move higher as well. We identified the double BOTTOM, similar to the one we saw in mid 2020, and we saw a nice move from the bottom. It has reached a NECK-LINE, so expect a consolidation period before the next move.
USDCAD – This one is the least conclusive in our view. We feel we are in a FINAL WAVE 5, but we could see some CAD weakness as positioning seems one sided.
GBPUSD – There is a lot of central bank NOISE surrounding cable. BOE seems to be on a path to normalize rates faster than most, but that may already be assumed in the price. The CHART has a FLAG pattern, showing a bit more downside, but at some point this will be very attractive on a RISK REWARD basis to be LONG. For now we expect the pair to possibly drift lower (some GBP crosses look actionable) and will look to get LONG once we see CONVEXITY.
The EURUSD – last but not least. We are mildly BULLISH EUR at current levels. The reason being that RISK REWARD is best to be LONG with a STOP below the recent lows. We flattened our long last evening and now have nibbled in the 1.1540 region. This has some convexity in our view. We know exactly where we are wrong.
As always, please do not hesitate to email us any questions or remarks. Especially if you have opposing views. We would love to hear from you. info@bcmptr.com
The Biscuit.