EURUSD is a CROWDED market. Today’s price action is indicative of a market that is positioned SHORT (LONG USD) as the move stalled and reversed. This applies to most US$ crosses (except JPY).

Today was DIFFICULT, a choppy, whippy day across assets. We remain SHORT USD and have this road-map for the medium term:

We suspect that the USD has another 200-300 bps of down-side, and that will take it to the SELL ZONE marked. At that point it is likely that the street gets BULLISH EUR and other FX and BEARISH USD. That is when we will look to flip so we can catch WAVE 5. We will want to see consolidation and a short term top forming first.