01.20.2022

We cannot mention the firm, but we receive street research daily. Here is a big Wall Street’s daily color on EURUSD. This illustrates the uncertainty well.

We remain medium/long term very constructive EURUSD (USD bears), but the short term has been and could continue to be choppy.

Strong PPI form German, a Eurozone inflation print likely to come in on a record 5% handle and the ECB minutes this afternoon but with hold the line/dovish comments from Lagarde first thing this morning none of it seems to matter in this usd centric market. The stabilisation in fixed income has been a good enough reason for the usd rally that started at the end of last week to pause and eurusd to reverse a bit of its recent decline. In many ways now it feels like we are back to where we were at the beginning of the year, perhaps with marginally cleaner positions and a marginally more jaded market. We will break out again but it’s going to need a fresh impetus one way or the other. Until that point, trade the ranges. Those that like playing that range form the long side, buying dips risking 1.1270 makes sense and conversely selling rallies risking 1.1480-1.1500 would have merit too.