01.13.2022
What we saw yesterday was very telling. The price action post CPI tells us that the FED was fully priced in. The fact that other G10 pairs started rallying earlier in the week was another HUGE tell.
The break of 1.1380 – 1.1400 (we protect against that level now, 1.1379 stop) was a big SHIFT as the consolidation broke out.
Now we need a catalyst to bring the FUNDAMENTAL traders in line, that could be Lagarde on Friday, if she pivots to HAWKISH we will see a mad scramble to cover as there will be no excuse to be SHORT EURUSD then.
EU assets are UNDER OWNED and apparently, positioning was larger than anticipated.
If we see a CATALYST on FRIDAY (ECB Hawkish pivot) the EUR crosses will rally as well. We like levels in EURGBP and EURCAD and have established LONG positions on both, we are willing to add.