We like this squeeze to have a final push, we are keeping a small EUR long but 100 pts in this market are attractive.
We are starting to see some cracks in the macro world. We feel we may see a final BIG PUSH higher in risk, but that may be it for a while.
We are keeping our eyes wide open and focusing on several KEY MACRO COMPONENTS:
1-Rates – the main driver, how all collateral and margin is priced. Risk OFF should take RATES significantly lower.
2- CROSS JPY – we have ridden this train quite a while. Once JPY and other FUNDING CURRENCIES start rallying it is time to pay attention and look the other way
3- Commodities – the run has been impressive, but we are starting to see STRONG signals that they are exhausted.
4-The FINAL leg is equities, particularly US equities, they seem to want to PUSH HIGHER, we suspect that segment will be last one to get out.
We are paying attention. For now we LOVE EURCAD higher as a RISK OFF/Corrective play.
More to come.