In a RISING RATES environment we have to look at the vulnerabilities of the CHF.

by | Oct 11, 2021 | FRAMEWORK, FX WATCH LIST | 0 comments

10.11.2021

There are cross-currents in markets. Several analysts are calling for the beginning of a BEAR MARKET. Charts do not agree, they point to a BLOW OFF type scenario where SPOOS and NAS lead the way higher. There is a definite WALL OF WORRY that markets could climb here.

SPOOS CHART:

Nasdaq chart looks very similar, so does the CROSS-JPY complex. So is the CHF the next shoe to drop in the revival of the CARRY TRADE?

SNB is aggressive in markets, both is FX and in EQUITIES. They recycle significant flow form their FX interventions and would welcome CHF weakness, so being short CHF has tail-winds for sure.

NZDCHF (we highlighted this pair in the am/late evening):

The STOP LOSS here is sub 0.6390. It is constructive and it has a solid backdrop.

We also like EURCHF higher as a passive position.

We will look for set-ups and as always we will be cognizant of the levels that negate our thesis.