12.17.2021
We cannot get stubborn, as always, we will let PRICE dictate what we do. Risk is deteriorating rapidly, as per the SPX chart below. There is a clear Double-Top and another 200-250 basis points will compromise the up-trend, making a corrective move deeper and more painful.
In the event that happens, Cross-JPY and the USD would benefit from a contraction in margin. At this point, so would the EUR. We will work this weekend with those charts to figure out a potential road map for a prolonged risk sell-off.
A bigger, deeper sell-off at this juncture is not OUR BASE CASE. We think this corrective move runs out of steam, but we need to respect price and let charts dictate where the risk reward is, not our biases.
Most, if not all of the move post FED has been erased, that is notable, we cannot ignore that price action, so we are cautious of continuation.