Our thesis remains intact, we will see sustained DOLLAR WEAKNESS going forward as other central banks react to inflation and peak fed subsides.
The issue we are seeing now is that the USD can materially weaken. The charts (most important piece of our analysis) have the USD selling off substantially into this year. As always, we feel that price leads and narratives follow, and what we are seeing in the USD charts is a sell-off that is imminent.
Yesterday’s EUR move was broad, with all EUR crosses moving substantially. We think that there is still room to run for the EUR as many positions are still on. That may lead or morph into a broader USD sell-off in the next few days.
We are looking to add to USD shorts and will look at : AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD among others. We feel that USD selling could be SUBSTANTIAL.