02.05.2022

We will run some charts on the USD

DXY DAILY: 93.50 is now a pivotal level for the INDEX. That marks the intersection of a potential Wave 1 and Wave 4 crossing. A failure to hold support may turn the tide, that would mean that the move higher from may 2021 was corrective in nature, we will expand.

WEEKLY CHART: Out thesis indicates that the USD SPIKE we saw in 2020’s COVID scare TRUNCATED and the next move lower started then. If that is the case, this move we have seen (wave 2) is a corrective move and we should expect LOSSES for the USD in the coming months.

CORRELATION CHART: The relationship between the US CURRENT ACCOUNT and the USD is very evident. We see a deepening of expenditures that should have a negative effect on the RELATIVE VALUE of the USD in the immediate future.

What UPENDS this Thesis : As the ULTIMATE safe heaven, the USD will be BOUGHT if we see a big RISK OFF event, we need to be cognizant that the FED remains the ULTIMATE CONTINGENCY for GLOBAL RISK, so in the event of a SIGMA EVENT, we would expect USD strength, otherwise, we feel the path of least resistance, with current conditions, is for USD weakness.